Objective: To construct a dynamic model of drug quality risk transmission system under the background of the new drug reform policy and conduct simulation analysis, in order to provide references for studying the mechanism of drug quality risk transmission and risk control strategies. Methods: The Grounded theory and risk transmission theory were used to identify the quality risk source, risk transmission carriers and risk recipients in the process of drug production and circulation, so as to construct and simulate a dynamic model of drug quality risk transmission system. Results: Both production and distribution subsystem quality risks show a trend of S-shaped growth followed by a shift to a target-seeking pattern, with distribution quality risks slightly higher than production quality risks. Conclusion: Risk related recipients needed to increase investment in quality control efforts, control risk source and block the risk transmission path. Government departments need to strengthen policy coordination, achieve the integration of “dual channel” varieties, and continue to expand the coverage of centralized procurement.