Objective: To analyze the linkage between revenue and expenditure of basic medical insurance fund in China and forecast its short-term trend. Methods: The error correction model equation is constructed to understand the long-term and short-term effects of basic medical insurance fund revenue and expenditure，and the ARIMA model is used to predict the short-term trend. Results: There is a long-term cointegration relationship between income and expenditure of the basic medical insurance fund. Income is the Granger cause of expenditure，showing a positive relationship. The income and expenditure of basic medical insurance will decline in the next five months. Conclusion: The change of basic medical insurance income can be used to explain the change of expenditure. T there is a long-term positive linkage between changes of the income and the expenditure. ARIMA model has a good prediction effect.