Objective: In the context of the continuous increase in the balance of payment of medical insurance funds, simulate and predict the balance of payment of medical insurance fund in the next five years by build ProModel simulation model of medical insurance system . Methods: Constructing ProModel simulation model of medical insurance system. Based on the data of Heilongjiang medical insurance in 2010-2014 years, on the basis of 2014 data, and maintain the growth trend of the variables over the past 2010-2014 years predict the health insurance revenue and expenditure in the next five years. Results: Simulation results showed that Heilongjiang basic medical insurance fund revenue and expenditure facing the imbalance risk in 2018. NCMS and MIUR will make ends meet and although MIUW will keep balance in payments, the balance will gradually decrease. Conclusion: Strengthen the health insurance fund revenue and expenditure risk management is the focus of the current health insurance system management