Abstract:Objective The aim of this study is to explore he applicability of EMD in secular trend analysis of individual out-of-pocket health expenditure , and to provide a new way for predicting the tendency and evaluating the influence factors of individual out-of-pocket health expenditure. Methods The data of individual out-of-pocket health expenditure from 1978 to 2013 were extracted from The People’s Republic of China statistical yearbook, and the year to year growth rate were calculated, then the time series of the year to year growth rate was decomposed by EMD. Results We successfully extracted four IMFs and one RES from the original time series, and the variance contribution rate for each IMF and RES is 44.58%, 23.82%, 6.12%, 11.98% and 13.49% respectively, the fluctuation cycle of the four IMFs from the highest to the lowest was 3 years, 5 years, 11.7 years and 23.3 years. Conclusion The EMD method can be used in the secular trend study of individual out-of-pocket health expenditure, The results of IMFs and RES might helpful to the short-term prediction and the exploration of related influencing factors of individual out-of-pocket health expenditure .